AD&D Coverstory - Shadows of War in 2006

 previous page    homepage  

This article is published in AD&D Magazine

Technically, only three cross-border wars were waged in 2006 – the Israeli incursion into Lebanon plus the ongoing running battles in Iraq and Afghanistan. The rest can be categorized as internal conflicts or terrorism attacks.

This year’s biggest shock came when Israeli forces swarmed en masse into Lebanon on 12 July on the flimsiest of excuses – the rescue of two captured soldiers – because the scale of the armed response far outweighed the instigation.
Coming 10 years after Operation Grapes of Wrath, a typical Israeli overreaction with a mainly air and artillery-based campaign against Hezbollah targets, few expected the Israelis to lose their heads so wildly and cause major damage to the already weak but slowly recovering Lebanese infrastructure and economy, not to mention widespread injuries and deaths of innocents.
The only positive aspect of this awful incursion was it being mercifully short in relative terms, with no winners on either side. Given the history of Israeli’s forceful involvement in Lebanese territory over the past four decades, chances are more shows of force against the Syrian-backed nation are likely to occur again unless a long-lasting diplomatic solution is found.

This prospect seems dim unless Syria and Israel come to a peaceful accommodation in the same manner that the Jews have arrived at with Egypt; geographically-disadvantaged Lebanon is otherwise doomed to remain a buffer punching bag between these two sworn enemies.
The same outlook cannot be had of Afghanistan and Iraq, where the widely condemned allied attacks led by the US have now resulted in troops mired amidst resentful populace – which in many ways echo the American’s ill-fated involvement in the Vietnam war.
Any which way one looks at the situation in both nations, there are only losers on every side.America’s allies have already begun withdrawing both support and troops as the engagement drags on far longer than had been projected, as everyone had been lulled into false confidence on the basis of technically superior weaponry and buoyed by the earlier quick ejection of Iraq out of Kuwait.

© - AD&D Magazine

Even internal sentiment within the US has turned as the body count continues to rise and more atrocities are uncovered; with the recent mid-term elections leaving a lame duck Republican president in an uphill struggle to steer an even course against the Democrat party-majority House of Representatives and Senate.
Nevertheless, Iraq has a very strong potential to eventually come out of the currently tricky situation if only some levelheaded minds start looking beyond the current unhappy violence and begin to put a truly promising future into place.
It’s well and good that so much tact is being exercised with the new constitution and government; but the real focus should be on deploying commercial enterprises across the Persian nation to create jobs, jumpstart the economy and fill store shelves with food and much-needed consumer items. While troops may initially be needed to ensure such commercial enterprises will be able to take root and prosper, it isn’t hard to imagine how quickly the Iraqis would turn against the rebels once the new prosperity sets in.

© - AD&D Magazine

So, with so much oil revenues flowing in that can easily fund such a widespread commercial undertaking to win Iraqi hearts, the question should no longer be how long American and allied troops still need to face hostile rebels. Instead, we should insist on learning exactly where all that oil money is being channeled currently.
For Afghanistan, the resource-starved and land-locked nation is likely to descend into prolonged sectarian unrest and continue as a hotbed of terrorism plus being a base for widespread poppy production and illegal arms dealing once the foreign troops leave.
Its only hope out of this quagmire is to be a vassal of a stronger benevolent external force in the same way it was with the former Soviet Union – a far-than-ideal situation that has seen it trading masters since Genghiz Khan’s conquering hordes swept across Asia.
Alternatively, Afghanistan may be one of the few troubled spots with much to gain if it became a UN protectorate with a permanent stationing of peacekeeping forces.

Peacekeeping troops

The biggest disappointments this year must surely be Sri Lanka and Timor-Leste, with regressive violence tearing up the hard-won peace that previously had everyone hopeful of even more fruitful advances. The list of countries with internal violence stretches out long and the usual suspects which come easily to mind include the West Bank, Cyprus, Somalia, Sudan and southern Thailand.

© - AD&D Magazine

The common positive factor in all these internal disputes must surely be the UN-sanctioned peacekeeping forces, with the first deployment conducted 50 years ago this year. Not every country with internal violence has yet accepted this proven formula, but even those who don’t subscribe to the entry of independent troops have adopted many of its guiding principles.
The UN is already gearing itself for a dramatic upsurge in the size of its peacekeeping force worldwide, from the current 93,000 troops to an unprecedented 140,000 next year. The latest deployments to Lebanon and East Timor would push the current total to 112,000 in 18 UN peacekeeping operations worldwide, with more expected to be sent to Darfur in Sudan.
The first peacekeeping corp – the U.N. Emergency Force (UNEF) to monitor the withdrawal of the armed forces of France, Israel and Britain from the Suez canal – was an immediate success, prompting many more over the past five decades and such independent forces are more in need today.

© - AD&D Magazine

The last peak was in July 1993, when 78,444 so-called “blue helmets” were deployed, almost one third of them in the UN Protection Force in Bosnia and Herzegovina. With the current record of deployments, involving nearly 81,000 military and police personnel and some 15,000 civilians, much of the latest increase can be attributed to operations in Liberia, Côte d'Ivoire, Haiti, Burundi and the Sudan – and the expansion of the mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).
Of the 18 U.N. missions currently underway, eight are in Africa – the rest being Western Sahara, Ethiopia and Eritre and Sierra Leone. There are also deployments in the Middle East, Europe and Asia.
Peacekeeping personnel come from some 112 countries. As of 31 October, the top 10 troop contributors were: Pakistan (9,790), Bangladesh (9,655), India (9,276), Jordan (3,819), Nepal (3,522), Ghana (2,674), Uruguay (2,583), Ethiopia (2,568), Nigeria (2,429) and South Africa (2,077).
Currently, over 67% of all UN military and police personnel come from developing nations while less than 5.8% come from the 25-member European Union (EU) and about 0.5% from the US. Since peacekeeping first began in 1956, more than 1,450 peacekeepers have lost their lives.
The current year’s budget is estimated to possibly top US$7 billion, a bill paid for by all UN member states according to an agreed upon formula. The current top 10 financial contributors are: the US 27%; Japan 19%; Germany 9%; UK 7%; France 7%; Italy 5%; Canada 3%; Spain 3%; China 2% and the Netherlands 2%.
UN peacekeeping missions are created and defined by the 15-member Security Council, dominated by the five permanent members – the US, Britain, France, China and Russia. Outgoing UN secretary-general Kofi Annan has often called for an expansion of this Security Council membership, stating it will not be easy to raise numbers of troops from countries which feel inadequately represented in the Security Council that is deciding the mandates for peacekeeping missions.

Terrorism

© - AD&D Magazine

In drawing up this summary of violent clashes in 2006, sporadic acts of terrorism have been deliberately excluded to ensure brevity.
However, one dastardly act of terror deserves mention due to its sheer disregard for innocent lives in the same way that the 9-11 audacity horrified billions around the globe.
Eight bombs exploded over a span of 15 minutes on seven trains packed with rush hour commuters in India’s commercial heart Mumbai, killing an estimated 200 and injuring over a thousand.
Coming after the bombings in Bali, Jakarta, Madrid and London, it is clear that the cowardly acts of terrorism will continue to hog the headlines as misguided individuals and groups continue seeking ways to outdo the past in the pursuit of their personal agendas.
It is easy to be resigned to such nasty surprises being an inevitable part of the new millennium, but with more focus given by governments to better coordinate civil and defence intelligence gathering and cooperative operations has already resulted in some successes against militant elements – including the London arrests in August of suspects planning to explode passenger planes flying to the US.
Hopefully, with all the positive advance made in both diplomatic efforts and anti-terror activities, 2007 won’t share a similar fate as this year and events will take a turn for the better.

Iraq

The mother of all ongoing battles with daily violence still engulfing many parts of Iraq. The death estimates still vary widely from 40,000 to over 700,000; the final tally may never be known for sure. The official count confirmed by the US so far is the loss of 2,866 American soldiers with 21,572 wounded. The number of wounded rises to 46,137 once the medical evacuees and non-mortal casualties are included.
Another 246 non-US nationals have also been killed since the Allied invasion began on 19 March 2003, not inclusive of journalists covering this drawn-out series of skirmishes. The Iraqi death and injury toll is probably at least equal, if not more than the official figures issued todate by allied forces. In a recent statement, the Iraqi health minister had acknowledged that around 150,000 civilians have been killed in the continuous bloodshed that sees no end in sight
The growing sectarian violence between the nation’s minority Sunni and majority Shiite has led to a staggering loss of life and an abrupt change in US President George Bush’s policy of ‘staying the course.’ The US Democrat’s majorities in both houses (Senate and Representatives) of the US Congress following its mid-term election in November, has indicated a wavering of political support for the US president. Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld had resigned following the mid term results and has been replaced by former Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Director Robert Gates.
The Democrat’s recent win may also lead to an expedited withdrawal of all US military forces in Iraq by the end of 2007 instead of the Bush administration’s planned gradual withdrawal by 2009.

Lebanon

The infamous 34-day conflict in mid-July between the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) and armed elements of the Lebanese Shiite Hezbollah (Party of God) organization had ended with its own ‘shock and awe’. The kidnapping of two Israeli soldiers by Hezbollah commandoes over the Israeli/Lebanese border had led the IDF to conduct a limited yet ill-prepared cross-border campaign with the simple goal of destroying Hezbollah’s military ability.
The end of the campaign left a combined civilian casualty figure of 1,003 killed, 4,911 wounded and 1,216,000 displaced on both sides of the border. Despite killing an estimated 700 Hezbollah guerillas and attaining its intended goal to a certain degree, the IDF had also suffered a casualty list of 114 troops killed and 400 more wounded. Hezbollah had also managed to fire nearly 4,000 rockets of various types into northern Israel throughout the conflict despite intensive ‘search and destroy’ operations by the IDF to locate and destroy Hezbollah’s rocket arsenal before they were launched.
In the aftermath, Hezbollah declared a ‘victory’ of sorts after withstanding the might of a more powerful foe, thereby elevating its political standing in the Arab world. In Israel however, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert’s administration was brought to task by Israel’s public to form a five-member Governmental Investigative Committee (Winograd Committee) to investigate the conduct of the government and IDF during the conflict.

Afghanistan

Towards the year’s end, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) secretary general, Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, had called for a complete overhaul of all military, civilian and development operations in Afghanistan. This statement follows intense fighting between NATO troops and a resurgent Taliban in southern Afghanistan where the latter initiated a cross border summer offensive from havens in Pakistan.
There are reasons that led to this change in strategy. Firstly, losses incurred by NATO forces showed a greater need for NATO and the European Union (EU) to expedite military and police training for domestic forces to share the burden of safeguarding the Afghanistan from internal and external threats. At present, the Afghan National Police (ANP) and Afghan National Army (ANA) are plagued by inadequate weaponry and manpower shortages and assumed to be independent effective forces in ten years time.
Secondly, after taking over from US military forces stationed in southern Afghanistan, the 26 nation alliance’s unity in peacekeeping operations appeared to be cracking in armed conflicts. Military forces from five NATO countries refused to aid NATO allies involved in the summer fighting due to ‘national caveats’ defined by the five nation’s legislators to limit the scope of their commitment to the Afghan mission.
Thirdly, the present government of President Hamid Karzai is losing popularity among the Afghan population due to wide spread administrative corruption, rampant insecurity and the lack of benefits from the ongoing reconstruction process. The lack of foreign assistance and occurring droughts in some regions of Afghanistan, have led to the cultivation of poppy by the population as a means to earn a meager living.

Timor Leste (East Timor)

The young nation was again awash with renewed violence in April following infighting in its military between the Lorosae (easterners) and Loromonu (westerners) factions. At least 591 soldiers of the Forças de Defesa de Timor Leste /Timor Leste Defense Force (FALINTIL-FDTL) had rioted in the capital of Dili after being dismissed following their desertion on grounds of discriminiation.
Joined by certain quarters of the nation’s population, the rioters instigated to a civil war like situation rife with more desertions and armed clashes leading Prime Minister Mari Alkatiri to accept offers of foreign military assistance. Following the intervention of Australian, Malaysian, New Zealand and Portuguese military forces and the seccession of violence, Timorese rebel forces had agreed to hand over their weapons to the intervention forces only if their grouses were addressed.
Mari Alkatiri was forced to step down after the Timor Leste government had accused him distributing firearms to his supporters in the population and ordering pro Alkatiri military forces to open fire on the rioters leading to unknown number of deaths.

Gaza Strip

The situation in the Gaza Strip has never been worse than now with an ongoing political conflict between Palestinians and a military operation by the Israeli Defence Force (IDF). After winning the general election to head the Palestinian Authority in January, the Hamas or ‘Islamic Resistance Movement’ administration was looked upon with disapproval by foreign and Israeli governments leading to the severing of much needed outside aid to the Gaza Strip.
The freeze in financial aid to pay government servants in particular has led frequent clashed especially with forces of the former governing secular ‘Fatah’ party. The IDF on the other hand, is conducting a military operation codenamed ‘Operation Autumn Clouds’ that is itself a continuation of ‘Operation Summer Rains’ since late June aimed a rescuing a kidnapped Israeli soldier and stemming frequent rocket attacks originating from within the Gaza Strip.
Hamas has been accused of being responsible in both instances and been brought to task to change its political stance regarding the existence and recognition of the state of Israel.

Nepal

The nation had already been embroiled in a brutal civil war between the armed forces of the Communist Party of Nepal and the government of Nepal since 1996 when it’s ruling monarch, King Gyanendra dissolved Nepal’s parliament and declares martial law in early February of 2005. A ban on all news coverage followed suit with all telephone and internet connections cut and the arrests of key figures in the nation’s political, economic and social circles were made by the authorities.
The monarch who had then declared himself head of a new government was opposed by a broad alliance of political parties of the dissolved parliament (Seven Parties Alliance) and the communist party. By early 2006, SPA’s nationwide general strike and civil disobedience was being countered by the monarch’s imposed curfew and mass arrests which failed to stem the rising tide of opposition against the king.
Following mass protests in the capital of Katmandu, the parliament with the relevant political parties were eventually reinstated by the pressured monarch as the rightful representatives of the Nepalese people by early April. Discussions between the SPA and the communist party regarding the set up of a new governing system for the country is still ongoing with the latter demanding the formation of a Constituent Assembly and abolition of the monarchy.

The Philippines

The Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) under the administration of President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo is reported to be conducting a two front offensive to crush the forces of the communist New People's Army (NPA) and the extremists’ al-Qaeda-linked Abu Sayyaf group. The President has made a long term pledged to crush both groups within a decade as they are still considered dangerous despite being in weakened state due to incessant fighting with government forces.
Flushed with recent US military assistance to combat what the US deems as terrorist organizations, the AFP’s dual offensive centers around the southern and northern areas of Luzon and the island of Jolo. Arroyo’s administration had been shaken by the discovery of a coup attempt by 15 military officers that included a general in early February that led to a declaration of a state of emergency till early March.

Sri Lanka

Fighting in late July between the Sri Lankan Armed Forces and rebels of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) squashed all hopes of salvaging the four-year ceasefire brokered by Norway in 2002. Prior to the let up in fighting, occasional outbreaks of fighting between them have been minor but had in some ways sow the seeds of mistrust between the protagonists.
Strong political political opposition particularly within the Sri Lankan government backed by President Kumaratunga had made matters of reaching a negotiated settlement particularly hard achieve. What became the spark for the powder keg happened south of the northeastern port of Trincomalee when the LTTE rebels cut off water supply to government controlled areas. A government military offensive was initiated not only to reopen the water supply but also to recapture land under LTTE controlled that included the vital district of Jaffna, the seat of LTTE’s power.
The two decade-old civil war between the Singhalese majority government and Tamil minority rebel group has led to an estimated 65,000 people being killed and many more thousands displaced. Though both sides have returned to the negotiation table, positive outcomes remain very much in doubt to put a complete stop to the fighting.

Thailand

The ouster of Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra in September by the Royal Thai Army’s Commander-in-Chief, General Sonthi Boonyaratkalin in a bloodless coup has brought renewed hope for solutions to the bloody ongoing insurgency in the nation’s southern region. The latter’s hard-lined stance and heavy handed policies had only aggravated the nation’s southern Malay Muslim community in Thaksin’s fight to quell the insurgency which began in 2001.
General Sothi, a Muslim himself, on the other hand has offered gestures of reconciliation but has only led to a brief respite and not a stop in the insurgent’s campaign of bombings and shootings. Despite the countless assumptions as to whom the insurgents are, the movement remains unidentifiable to the Thai authorities.
The death toll from the three year insurgency remains at 1,400 people mostly civilian casualties in the insurgent’s efforts to slay any Buddhist and Muslim with affiliation to the Thai government. The list of targets has consisted of government officials, Buddhist monks and enforcement personnel like soldiers and police.

Sudan

The outlook on the long standing humanitarian crisis in the nation’s western region of Dhafur may be a little better as the United Nations (UN) is negotiating with Sudan’s government to accept some 20,000 UN peacekeeping troops into that region. These troops, if accepted will supplement the 7,000 troops of the African Union Mission in Sudan (AMIS) who are already based in the region but unable to stem the crisis.
The crisis has caused the deaths of an estimated 300,000 people and the displacement of 2.5 million more was brought about by a tribal cum ethnic conflict since mid 2003. The conflict between an alleged government supported tribal militia known as the Janjaweed and tribes of the Fur, Zaghawa, and Massaleit ethnic groups has resulted in an unimaginable humanitarian disaster. The Sudanese government has so far only accepted technical assistance from the UN and is reluctant to agree to a larger more comprehensive form of help.

Somalia

A new Islamist militia known as the Supreme Islamic Courts Council or Islamic Courts Union (ICU) had wrested large swaths of the nation’s land including the capital of Mogadishu from other warring Somali militia since July. With the goal of establishing law and order through Sharia (Islamic law), the ICU has been creating some anxiety in neighboring African states especially the US who alleged ICU’s links to Al-Qaeda.
The ICU has been clashing with the militia of the US backed Alliance for the Restoration of Peace and Counter-Terrorism (ARPCT) in the former’s ongoing drive to control the rest of the country. The ICU’s string of victories in Somalia’s civil war may lead to a larger regional conflict involving Ethiopian and Eritrea as both countries has send troops to back one side against the other.

Source & copyrights: AD&D Magazine

 previous page    homepage