Iran's Spin Meister

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This article is published in AD&D Magazine

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has been a very busy man since he took office in 2005, when he won the run-off voting challenge against another popular two-term ex-president Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani.
Living up to his campaign motto "It's possible and we can do it", he has acted quickly to create an "exemplary government for the people of the world" in Iran – a relatively bold move, given that his powers as the highest directly elected executive is still subservient to the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who is the commander in chief of the armed forces and has the final word in all aspects of foreign and domestic policies.
Among his first self-avowed goals was to "put the petroleum income on people's tables" and this was realized in the 2006 national budget when state-owned banks were directed to allocate a larger portion of their resources to consumer loans for low-income families and small enterprises in underdeveloped regions plus more housing subsidies for low-income families.
This was in line with his government's first legislation that established a 12 trillion rial (US$1.3 billion) fund called "Reza's Compassion Fund" which taps into Iran's oil revenues to help young people to get jobs and to afford marriage, as well to assist in purchasing their own homes.
As a result, interest rates for consumer loans were almost halved.

Further to this already widely popular move, then newly-elected president directed hospitals to provide free medical treatment and also ordered notoriously tight private hospitals to ensure urgent cases were treated right away without need for deposits or payments.
What further cemented his domestic popular appeal was the refusal to sell petrol at the market price or allowing a gradual increase of petrol prices, stating that only after making necessary preparations such as a development of public transportation system will the government free up petrol prices possibly come 2011.
About his only major setback was being vetoed by the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei when he attempted to change the law to permit women to attend sporting events, which had been severely restricted according to Muslim customary laws.
Ahmadinejad had objected to punishment of women appearing in stadiums without proper hijab and had wanted to go even further to allow females to watch men playing sports in stadiums.
With such a minor slap on the wrist and the domestic agenda in place, Ahmadinejad was now ready to tackle the world.

Anti-West rhetoric

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The tone of Ahmadinejad’s presidency was apparent even during the 2005 campaigning period, which was held after the 2003 fall of Iraq’s Saddam Hussein – he was the only candidate who spoke out against future relations with the US.
The stance wasn’t very much of a surprise as US President George W. Bush’s administration had branded Iran to be the world's leading state supporter of terrorism. Also, Iran has been on the US terrorism list of state sponsors since 1984 – a charge it vehemently denies.
Ahmadinejad’s election campaign also revealed a strong anti-UN stand, accusing the UN of being "one-sided, stacked against the world of Islam."
He has openly opposed the veto power given to the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, stating: "It is not just for a few states to sit and veto global approvals. Should such a privilege continue to exist, [shouldn’t] the Muslim world with a population of nearly 1.5 billion … be extended the same privilege?"
Probably the most controversial of his statements were those directed against Israel, although Ahmadinejad has also said “No, I am not anti-Jew…I respect them very much.”
Still, many will remember him for openly wondering if the World War II Jewish Holocaust was merely a myth, stating in a published interview: “I will only accept something as truth if I am actually convinced of it".
It also didn’t help that in his October 2006 speech at a Tehran conference entitled "World Without Zionism", he agreed with a statement he attributed to Ayatollah Khomeini that the "occupying regime" had to be removed, and referred to it as a "disgraceful stain [on] the Islamic world" that must be "wiped off the map".

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Fully aware of the world’s media eyes and ears on him, Ahmadinejad has proven to be very adept in spouting incendiary and reconciliatory statements at almost every turn to keep the Western powers off-balanced.
He has made his rounds with the usual media of print, radio and television – even appearing with Mike Wallace on the “60 minutes” chatshow. Not satisfied with these channels, Ahmadinejad has also issued a personal letter to George W. Bush on 8 May 2006, despite the two nations not having any diplomatic relations since the 1979 revolution.
The letter containing proposal of "new ways" to end Iran's nuclear dispute was quickly dismissed by State Secretary Condoleezza Rice and National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley as a negotiating ploy and publicity stunt that did not address US concerns.
They were undoubtedly proven right when Ahmadinejad scored brownie points a few days later at a D8 (Group of 8 developing Muslim countries) meeting in Jakarta, when he described "the letter was an invitation to monotheism and justice, which are common to all divine prophets."

Apart from criticizing Bush for the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq, detainee abuse in US-run facilities in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, and Iraq's Abu Ghraib prison and US support of Israel, Ahmadinejad repeatedly praised Jesus of Nazareth as well as other prophets in his letter – and especially pointed out that one who claims to follow the teachings of Jesus should not be waging war.
Ahmadinejad also tauntingly invited Bush to a debate at the UN General Assembly scheduled for 19 September 2006 about Iran's right to enrich uranium but the invitation was promptly rejected by White House spokesman Tony Snow who said: "There's not going to be a steel-cage grudge match between the President and Ahmadinejad."

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Ahmadinejad also took his message to cyberspace, becoming probably the first Middle-eastern leader to post his own blog. Though postings have been quite irregular, the attention gathered to the Iranian president’s Arabic and English postings have gathered even more widespread attention, much to the annoyance of Western powers – which was probably the intent in the first place.
Perhaps the most outstanding international diplomacy public relations coup so far would be in announcing the abrupt release of 15 British naval officers held in tense captivity for 13 days for supposed Iranian territorial waters incursion without permission.
No one missed the politicized religious subtext in announcing this release during a speech to mark the Prophet Muhammad’s birthday, punctuated by Ahmadinejad also pointedly stating that the unconditional release was an Easter gift to Britain.
Subsequently, two Swedish construction workers convicted of espionage and imprisoned last year in Iran for taking photographs of military installations were released after being pardoned, but this failed to attract as much media attention and it is unlikely that Ahmadinejad may use this PR card again soon.
Instead, the focus may shift to US’s stubborn refusal to release five Iranians arrested during a raid in northern Iraq in January and accused of seeking to stir trouble in Iraq. Iran says the men are diplomats who were working for a "consulate."
Iran has also accused the US of having severely abused Iranian diplomat Jalal Sharafi during a two-month captivity in Iraq , a charge that White House national security spokesman Gordon Johndroe rejected, "The United States was not involved in his detention, and any suggestion of torture is baseless."

Why the showboating?

It is clear that Ahmadinejad will continue to display his PR spin mastery throughout his tenure of presidency and it is within this context that his statements must be seen within.
Ahmadinejad is well aware that his political survival greatly depends on him walking a fine line as his every move is being watched closely by the supreme Muslim leaders who have the final say over his fate.
Even during the 2005 election process, then-Tehran mayor Ahmadinejad was written off against the more popular candidates of Rafsanjani and Mostafa Moeen until the first set of results unexpectedly placed him a close second behind the ex-president Rafsanjani.
This led to the first presidential runoff in the history of Iran where Ahmadinejad went on to receive double the votes compared to Rafsanjani, who had openly alleged the Guardian Council – which is supposed to independently govern the electoral process – had thrown their support behind Ahmadinejad.

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Ahmadinejad reportedly was backed by powerful conservatives who used their network of mosques to mobilise support for him and also had the support of a group of younger, second-generation revolutionaries known as the Abadgaran, or Developers, who are strong in the Iranian parliament, the Majlis.
Even then, the outgoing reformist president Mohammad Khatami barred Ahmadinejad from attending cabinet meetings, a privilege normally accorded to mayors of the capital.
Ahmadinejad is also very aware of the fates that befell Iran’s first two elected presidents and his political manoeuvering is clearly aimed at avoiding a repeat of their fates.
The first president Abolhassan Banisadr was impeached on 21 June 1981 after only 16 months in office, allegedly because of his moves against the clerics in power. Having survived two helicopter crashes, his closest allies were quickly executed after the impeachment and to avoid alleged orders for his assassination by his bodyguards, Banisadr fled to France where he is still living in exile.
Mohammad Ali Rajai was the second elected President of Iran, after serving as Prime Minister under Abolhassan Banisadr. He was killed in a bomb blast on 30 August 1981 within weeks of assuming the presidency.
Both these presidents were laymen as 1979 Iranian Islamic Republic founder Ayatollah Khomeini had originally wanted to keep clerics out of the presidency. This policy was compromised when Ayatollah Khamenei was elected by a landslide in the October 1981 elections and went on to serve out two presidential terms till 1989.

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Having narrowly escaped an assassination attempt in June 1981 though the bomb blast left him with permanent injury that resulted in his reputation as a “living martyr”, Ayatollah Khamenei was elected the new Supreme Leader by the Assembly of Experts on 4 June 1989 (after the demise of close ally Ayatollah Khomeini the day before) and still retains that position today.
Ahmadinejad has had no choice but to seek out the domestic Iranian population’s support to counterbalance the long shadow cast by the Supreme Leader and his popular economic measures since assuming the presidency in 2005 has somewhat achieved this aim.
In another shrewd move, Ahmadinejad has continued living in a simple apartment flat and eating meals brought from home to his office even after being elected president. Both of these traits contributed to his widespread support amongst the poorer classes of Iran.
But popular electoral support is fickle and Ahmadinejad faced the first public demonstration against his presidency late last year when students at the Amirkabir University of Technology in Tehran disrupted his speech on 11 December 2006.
According to the Iranian Student News Agency, students also set fire to photographs of Ahmadinejad and threw firecrackers while chanting "death to the dictator" and accusing him of corruption, mismanagement, and discrimination.

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Also, many political analysts have interpreted last year’s results of the first nationwide election since Ahmadinejad took office in 2005 as a setback against the president as his allies failed to dominate election returns for the Assembly of Experts and local councils.
With the results suggesting a voter shift toward more moderate policies, it is an open question whether these electoral results may actually reflect the domestic support that Ahmadinejad may be trying to obtain on the sidelines. Perhaps, such a move hasn’t gone unnoticed, there are already some rumblings in the Majlis against the president’s policies.
But for now, Ahmadinejad is still secure in his position as he continues to satisfy his superiors by rallying the local populace to stand united against Western threats, in the same way that many other leaders around the world had done in the name of national unity.

Middle-eastern legacy

It will be all too easy to assume Ahmadinejad is merely a patsy sticking to the usual formula of ranting against Western powers, the UN and Israel while courting closer ties with Russia when it comes to Iranian foreign policy – which is largely out of his hands, in any case.
Judging from his actions so far, especially on the nuclear enrichment issue, it is very likely that Ahmadinejad may have a much larger goal in mind.
Following the 2003 fall of Iraq – which had long been a huge thorn in Iran’s side, with memories still fresh of the 1980-88 invasion attempt by Saddam Hussein’s forces – the way was now clear for Iran to resume its aim of once more being a major influence in Middle eastern politics.
Saudi Arabia’s dominant influence is more recent compared to the Persian and Babylonian glorious empires; it dates back from the founding and rise of Islam in the 7th century and further reinforced over the last few decades by its petroleum-based economic might.
Without Iraq as an unnecessary distraction, Iran is well positioned to be the second largest influence in the ever-unpredictable Middle eastern politics due to its strong Muslim foundation plus having the second largest conventional oil reserves ahead of Iraq, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates.
Unlike the Saudi diplomatic approach of brotherliness, Iran’s relations have always been strictly cordial due to a less than a warm embrace by its neighbours suspicious of its history and fears of overt extremist Islamic pressure.
Ahmadinejad has deftly skirted around this religiously-charged political and diplomatic minefield with leadership by example, especially on the nuclear enrichment issue that has had Western powers all worked up.
The future of petroleum as an economic energy fuel is far from bright, especially given rising environmental concerns as well as depleting supplies – and Iran has placed itself well to address this uncertainty by steadfastly focusing on its nuclear programme begun in the 1950s with US help.
The Iranian government asserts that the programme's goal is to develop nuclear power plants, with plans to generate 6,000 MW of electricity by 2010 but the US and other Western powers claim the programme covers an attempt to acquire nuclear weapons.
It is a fact that even Armenian Minister of Energy Armen Movssisyan has acknowledged, stating that access to nuclear energy for peaceful purposes is the inalienable right of Iran.
Despite ongoing UN Security Council sanctions against Iran for refusing to back down from these nuclear plans, the proposal has struck a chord among other Gulf nations. Media reports indicate International Atomic Energy Agency has had talks with Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, Turkey and the smaller Arab states around the Persian Gulf, which are all studying the feasibility of building civilian programs for generating electricity with nuclear reactors.
This is because higher petroleum prices have proven to be a double-edged sword for oil producers. Contrary to the perception that the Middle East is awash with gas, reality check reveals that almost all the major countries in the Middle East have issues over future gas supply, with the exception of Iran and Qatar.

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This urgent need to focus on future energy needs being met by nuclear and renewable sources has been underlined by Indonesia – the only net importer of oil in the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec).
Another leadership by example card that Iran is now playing up is its self-sufficiency in the development and production of military equipment.
Unlike the last Shah of Iran Mohammad Reza Pahlavi who went on a buying spree of American and European weaponry, including setting up Iran Electronics Industries for local assemblies, the 1979 revolution has forced Iran to dig deep to produce its own.
In the past 28 years, Iran has managed to develop and manufacture an impressive array of domestic military hardware including tanks, armored personnel carriers, guided missiles, submarines, and even a fighter plane.
The Shahab missiles and the Ghadr-110 ICBMs are of especial concern to Western powers and Israel in particular due to their potential to deploy cluster warheads and potentially nuclear ones as well.
Iran has made it a point to show off its military capabilities with relatively frequent test firings and public displays – backed by it successfully fending off the Iraq invasion of 1980-88 – although the weaponry hasn’t faced any real-world conflict since then.
Even so, Iran’s hard experience has won it admiration among other Middle Eastern nations who are still dependant on military hardware imports or licensed domestic production. It will only be a matter of time before these Gulf states start taking a closer look at where their seemingly unending supply of money is being spent and figure that it might be better to emulate Iran’s example.
This prospect is one that Western powers fear most for it could potentially destabilize even further an already volatile region.

What next?

The 56-nation Organisation of the Islamic Conference is also watching very carefully what Iran is doing as Ahmadinejad is proving to be a really dynamic leader who is likely to provide the visionary outlook that the association currently seems to be lacking.
Even though Iran still remains at the periphery of the core membership, Ahmadinejad has been busy with diplomatic overtures – with the most prominent being a lightning visit to meet Saudi King in March.
Although many political analysts view this meeting as a form of Iranian recognition of Saudi Arabia's senior status in the region, there is no denying the perception that Iran has also been metaphorically welcomed back into the fold.
Given all the right moves he’s made so far as an astute politician and statesman, the 51-year old former Tehran mayor is set to stamp his mark on the Muslim map with all his PR spinning that’s keeping Western powers second-guessing just exactly what to anticipate next from him.

Source & copyrights: AD&D Magazine

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