Al-Khalid, Type 98, and T-90 Dominate World Tank Market

(Newtown, Conn., March 24, 2008) -- In its annual analysis, "The Market for Tanks," the Forecast International Weapons Group expects that the international market will produce over 6,900 main battle tanks, worth nearly $27.9 billion, through 2017. However, while increased modernization and retrofit remains transparent to our analysis of new-production tanks, this factor remains a significant component of the international market.

Dean Lockwood, Weapons Systems Analyst at Forecast International and author of the analysis, noted, "In 2007, U.S. Department of Defense contract awards for the maintenance, RESET, and upgrade of the existing M1 Abrams inventories carried a total value of over $1.223 billion." That was equivalent to nearly 33.25 percent of the total value of all new-production main battle tanks entering the international market in 2007 (over $3.68 billion). Last year, the Chinese Type 98 program maintained its position as the single largest new-production program. Yet, with a total value of $402.62 million (for 118 new-production tanks), the Type 98 program was worth less than 33 percent what the U.S. DoD spent on the M1 Abrams in 2007.

The expense associated with the modernization and retrofit of high-end main battle tanks pales in comparison with the prospect of new tank procurement. Thus, we expect that new production of high-end tanks will remain relatively low, accounting for 14.03 percent of all production and worth 22.25 percent of the market, during the forecast period.

In terms of sheer numbers, we expect that Pakistan's Al Khalid, the Type 98 of the People's Republic of China, and the Russian Federation's T-90 (including India's licensed T-90S production program) will continue to dominate the market, accounting for 60.38 percent of all new tanks rolling out worldwide, worth 52.82 percent of the market, through 2017.

In the international market for main battle tanks, the days of U.S. and European domination over new production appear to be long gone. Nevertheless, the established U.S. and European players continue to make their presence felt. The 120mm Rh 120 smoothbore ordnance, the state-of-the-art Leopard 2, and the combat-proven M1 Abrams continue to set the standard for main battle tank design worldwide.

Second only to the infantryman in terms of combat effectiveness, the "mailed fist" of heavy armor remains the arm of decision on the modern battlefield. Further, as Operation Iraqi Freedom (2003-present) evolved from a war of movement into a security operation, the main battle tank has proven surprisingly adaptable. According to Lockwood, "In the congested streets of Iraqi cities, the Abrams serves as a significant force multiplier, fully up to meeting the challenges of an asymmetric warfare environment."

Source : Forecast International Inc.

Recent News / Press releases from Forecast International Inc.

• Forecast International Projects $48+ Bn Expendable Launch Vehicle Market [Defence] [ Wed 20 Aug 2008 ]
• Forecast International Projects $30-Plus Bn Military Satellite Market [Defence] [ Thu 7 Aug 2008 ]
• Russian Military Faces Growing Budget, Constrained Bandwidth [Defence] [ Tue 6 May 2008 ]
• NGC's BAMS Win May Spur High Export Sales [Defence] [ Thu 24 Apr 2008 ]
• FY09 DoD Budget Request for Defense Spending is Largest Ever [Defence] [ Thu 24 Apr 2008 ]
• New Models Driving Medium/Heavy Military Rotorcraft Production [Aviation] [Defence] [ Fri 28 Mrch 2008 ]
• C4I Sector Adjusts to Life After the 9/11 Buildup [Defence] [ Fri 28 Mrch 2008 ]